Is there a new force in British politics?

By Martin Roche, Etoile Partner

Last month, the Liberal Democrats, the minority party that shares power with the much larger Conservative party in Britain’s coalition government, won a by-election in the affluent southern England constituency of Eastleigh.

The election was won despite a turbulent time for the LibDems, but they are not the story. The big story is that the Conservatives came third and the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) came a good second. It was UKIP’s inaugural second place in a seat the Conservatives felt they could win. They had hoped to tear it from their LibDem coalition partners and had a reasonable ambition of winning again at the 2015 General Election. Eastleigh is listed as vital to a Conservative majority in 2015.

UKIP began life in 1993, founded mainly by anti-EU Conservatives convinced that a new party of the Right was needed to force the UK’s disengagement from Europe. Twenty years on it feels its cause is at last catching the public mood. Its steadily improving poll ratings and string of impressive by-election performances may hasten the day that the UK takes its leave of the EU. The alternative view is that UKIP may so damage the Conservative Party at the next election that the giant could take decades to revive, if it revives at all.

It’s not that UKIP – a party that has never won a seat in the Westminster parliament - is heading for electoral victory. Indeed, it’s entirely possible it will win no seats at all in 2015. The British first-past-the-post electoral system used at elections to Westminster makes it extremely difficult for small parties to win seats. UKIP may win little tangible reward in the House of Commons, but a string of high seconds could make it the executioner of the Conservative Party. LibDem candidates could pour through the gap left by the Right and the occasional Labour candidates could find themselves the MP for most unlikely Labour seats.

In 2015 a very strong UKIP showing in traditional Conservative seats may be enough to deprive the Conservatives of a parliamentary majority and turn it from a party of mixed views on the EU to one sworn to quit Europe as soon as it can again get its hands on power.

If the Conservatives badly lose the 2015 election the winners will either be Labour with an outright majority or Labour in a coalition with the pro-EU LibDems. Both would happily see the EU pushed off the higher reaches of the British political agenda. To win, Labour may have followed the Conservative lead of a General Election promise of some EU renegotiation followed by a national referendum to endorse or reject the new terms. It would be a high risk move for Labour. Voters like to give governments a bloody nose.

A dream position for Labour would be to find itself back in office just as the economy is recovering. Better economic conditions under Labour may have come as a result of the Conservative-led government’s policies. That will matter little to voters who prefer united parties to divided ones and prefer work and earnings over endless debates about Britain’s place in Europe. Visibly rising wages, jobs for the young and spending in the shops will bring hope after years of going backwards. An EU referendum in a strengthening economy, run by a new government advising a yes vote, is much more likely to see the people of the UK opt for staying in Europe.

If there’s no obvious upturn Labour can find lots of reasons to delay a referendum on the EU and many in Brussels and Strasbourg will be happy to accommodate Labour in keeping renegotiations at a snail’s pace.

What then happens to the Conservative Party out of office? If it fails to find a position that binds enough people on the Right and Centre-Right of British politics it could, like the once-all-powerful Liberal Party did in the 1920s, almost expire.

Throughout the 19th century the Liberal Party alternated with the Conservatives in leading Britain. It has not ruled on its own in 100 years.

Fractured parties are not confined to the distant past. In the 1970s the Labour Party split in two, lost office in 1979 and did not win it back until 1997. Oh and the Conservative Party has not won a Parliamentary majority since 1992. Its then Prime Minister, John Major, lost office after five years of party fighting over….yes you’ve guessed it…the EU.

We may be now watching the long slow death of the political party that above all others in Britain understood that the only thing that matters is being in power*. For many MPs in David Cameron’s party today, the matter of Europe is seen to be worth the risk of splitting the Conservative Party and splitting it from power, perhaps for a generation. Maybe for many generations.

Let me though bring some cheer to beleaguered Conservatives. Their party may still win an outright majority. If so, UKIP will still be breathing down its neck in dozens of constituencies. That will ensure the Conservative Party in power takes UKIP’s clothes and leads Britain out of the European Union. It will do so under the banner of national interest. It might even convince itself that the interest of the nation and that of the Conservative Party is the same thing.

UKIP may never have an MP in Parliament. It looks though to be at the centre of a very great series of changes in British politics.

*Tony Blair’s great legacy to the British Labour Party was to get its leadership to understand this simple reality; Blair knew that without power a political party is only a set of promises without foundation. That is one reason he won three General Elections in a row.